In this post, he lays out the reasons he sees why there will be increased volitility in the mortgage and housing sectors.  Basically, since the Fed is currently slated to stop buying mortgages next month…

It is worth a read…

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• Mortgage and Housing Volatility Far From Over (gwinnettgarageguy.com)

But, the good news is that 99 homes DID sell this past year — so, the world is still turning and homes are still selling!

On the other side of the coin, buyers are getting fantastic deals on all kinds of real estate.  If you are moving up and buying another home, it’s very likely that you’ll be able to buy an amazing home at a rock bottom price right now.  Investment properties are also a great idea right now.

Be sure to add yourself to our mailing list here for the Hamilton Mill Real Estate Annual Report.

btw, we’ll also be sending out updates on a quarterly basis in 2010.

Waiting a few extra days or weeks to purchase a home this spring could cost buyers thousands of extra dollars as the office of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) implements several changes for loans guaranteed by the Federal Housing Authority (FHA).

Coming just weeks before the April 30 deadline for the Home Buyer Tax Credit and just days after the March 31 expiration of the Federal Reserve Board’s mortgage backed securities purchase program (which has kept home loan rates artificially low for over a year), these FHA changes make it even more important to act now to save big.

Here are a few reasons why:

On April 5th, the cost of required up-front mortgage insurance for loans guaranteed by the FHA will increase from 1.75% to 2.25%. For a borrower purchasing a $200,000 home with a $7,000 down payment, the up-front mortgage insurance will increase by $965. Up-front mortgage insurance is typically financed in the final loan amount so the impact to a monthly payment will be minimal but overall, the increase is still borne by the borrower both upfront and monthly.

Later this spring, the amount of money that a seller can return to the buyer from their sale proceeds will be reduced from 6% to 3%. The reduction in these “seller concessions” can increase the amount of cash a buyer will be required to pay at closing by $6,000 for a home purchase of $200,000.

There is only one way to avoid being affected by all of these costly changes that lie ahead – submit all FHA mortgage applications by the last week of March.

(Thanks Gabie!)

There’s a couple of things that I noticed when I looked at this data.

#1.  The prices for many properties are really low (the lowest is just $169k)

#2.  Some of these homes have been on the market for a year or even 2 years.

#3.  There’s an obvious division between the two.

So, here’s what I’m saying…

Homes come on the market at a good price and they sell in a reasonable amount of time (like 90 to 120 days).  But, other homes come on the market at “old market prices” and they just sit on the market for months and then years.

What can we do…

The bottom line for Hamilton Mill homeowners is that selling a home today is going to take some pretty aggressive pricing — probably more aggressive than you think.

The good news is that homes are, in fact, selling.

By my count, 99 homes sold in Hamilton Mill during 2009.

We’re about to publish our Hamilton Mill Real Estate Annual Report for 2009.  Just fill out the form here to receive your copy.

Of course, we’re happy to provide whatever custom data you might want and customize a report for homes that are directly comparable to your own home, etc.

Originally built in 1999, the Super Target located in the shadow of Stone Mountain, next to the old Olympic Tennis Venue, will be closing as of January 30th, 2010.  Faced with declining profits from the store, Target is pulling the plug.

Most affected are the residents of the Park Springs continuing care center.  Many were able to walk to the Target store, and with the closing, will need to find alternate places to fill prescriptions and buy groceries.  There is a Super WalMart just a mile or so away, but it is going to be too far for the seniors to easily get to.

The store, which sits right at the county line between Gwinnett and Dekalb Counties, has been a great alternative to the nearby WalMart.  Ironically, the WalMart, which has done VERY well, was slated for closure in 2003.  Instead, because of the activism of the nearby community, it was expanded from 102,000 square feet to 210,000sf.  In fact, several neighboring stores had to be moved in order for the WalMart to expand.

Many area residents have been trying, through petitions and emails, to get Target to change their mind.  So far, they haven’t prevailed.  It will be sad to see the store go.  It is surprising the store doesn’t do better.  It is a very convenient location, just of US78 at West Park Place, but it doesn’t have signage or visibility from the highway.  It is also very close to several upscale communities including Smokerise and Mountain Park.

The remaining locations that are closest, Snellville, Tucker (Northlake) and Lithonia are all in the 10 mile range.  It isn’t likely that they will pick up significant business from the closure of this store.

Hopefully the space won’t remain empty for long.

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• Say Goodbye to the Stone Mountain Super Target… (gwinnettgarageguy.com)

A while back, I wrote that I had volunteered with Junior Achievement.  Up until now we hadn’t been able to find an assignment that was reasonably close… but that changed this week.

I am now the JA volunteer for Ms. Ferrer-Adames 4th Grade class at Nesbitt Elementary School in Gwinnett County.  and I recently had our first class together.  It was a lot of fun.

For our first meeting, we introduced ourselves to each other and spent a few minutes talking about businesses and entrepreneurialism.  The kids were very engaging and had a lot to contribute.  After just 50 minutes of class time, I have to say that I am very excited about the prospects of the next generation.

The program we are doing is called My Region.  To begin with, we talked about what makes a region, as well as resources, natural, human and capital.  The kids were great at coming up with examples of each of the types of resources and grasping the concepts behind them.

Next week we are going to start coming up with business examples and deciding what regions they would be best suited for.  I’m really looking forward to it.

And next week I will get some actual pictures…  ;^ )

from LaneBailey.com

The biggest thing in housing in the last few months has been the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit.  It has had a GIANT pull on the market, and when it “expired” (it was renewed and expanded before it actually expired, but the effect seemed to expire) it altered the direction of the market… as it did when it was enacted.

Let’s get a few numbers for Lilburn out of the way…

• There were 384 listings as of 12/31/2009
• In November, there were 36 sales
• The Absorption Rates for Lilburn break down as follows:
  • 12 month average – 10.04 months of inventory
  • 6 month average – 8.35 months of inventory
  • 3 month average – 9.76 months of inventory

The link above explains Absorption Rates more fully, but basically, it tells us how long it would take to sell all of the property on the market at the current rate.

Sales for Lilburn in November were up 38.5% compared to November 2008.  This was after October was up 15% year over year.  Days on Market had also dropped by 7 days to 96 days.

By Segment…

The market is divided up into six segments, but two of them didn’t have any activity in the last 12 months.

Under $200k…

There were 227 listings and 24 sales in November.  Looking back the 12mo/6mo/3mo Absorption Rates were 8.7/7.4/9.1 months.  I expected the 3mo rate to be a little better because of the accelerating sales, but that wasn’t the case.  The Under $200k segment is the strongest, though.

$200k – $400k…

There were 133 listings and 9 sales in November.  The 12mo/6mo/3mo Absorption Rates were 12.7/9.9/10.5 months.  I also expected the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit to have a little more impact on the 3mo rate, but sales began to slow anyway.  The $200k – $400k segment looked like it was staging a rebound.  Hopefully it will pick up again after the Holidays.

$400k – $600k…

There were 15 listings and 2 sales in November.  The 12mo/6mo/3mo Absorption Rates were 10/9/11.3 months.  This segment wasn’t as affected by the tax credit as lower priced homes.  The change in absorption rates looks like it might be a little more seasonal…  As a sneak peak, the December numbers look a lot better so far (I won’t have final numbers for a couple of weeks).

$600k – $800k, $800k – $1m and Over $1m…

There were a total of 9 listings and 2 sales in the last 12 months.  The absorption Rates can be calculated, but they really aren’t meaningful.  One extra sale or one missed sale make a HUGE swing in the data.  Also, these homes are not likely to be affected by the old tax credit or the newer expanded tax credit.

Click here to search Lilburn properties.

When Mayfield was building, the pricing went from the $500Ks to $700Ks.  Even when the unsold homes were being sold by the bank that foreclosed, they were selling from the low $400Ks to the low $500Ks.

DR Horton is building homes priced from $270K to $310K. I would expect that there are some options that could push that price up a bit, and while I haven’t seen the final product (they don’t have any completed or nearly completed homes up yet), the homes Mayfield was building were a bit bigger and featured mostly 3 car garages.

The owners of the older homes are going to end up taking a very big hit.  Despite those homes being bigger and possibly higher end, with the new homes coming in around half the price, it will push the values of the first phase down.  But those comps will certainly help the newer homes.

If you’d like to get a look at them, let me know.  I’m NOT an agent of the community and would be your buyer’s agent.  That means that I wouldn’t be representing the builder, but rather you… the buyer.

Here is a search of currently listed properties in Legends at Parkview.

from GwinnettGarageGuy.com

Need more information? Call us anytime at 678.279.4700

Regards,

Matt Fagioli
Founder @ Diamond Dwellings
matt@diamonddwellings.com

In order to do this, I have set up a new blog here.

No car stuff. No fluff. No market reports.

Just New Home Community specials. As soon as I get them in my email, I will post them up on this special blog. You can subscribe to this special blog by clicking here, or visiting the blog and clicking “Subscribe via RSS”.

from GwinnettGarageGuy